So I'd say yes, the perpetual license is not really perpetual anymore.
Perpetual has never meant "not subject to a check". If that's how you are framing it - that is your own thing to come to grips with.
"Perpetual" (in this context) means you are NOT required to reach for your wallet - ever again. AKA - use Studio Pro with "this" license - forever free of any more charges. (and updates)
And I have already proven this is not a concern. When I purchased V7.0.0 ON the day of release (Oct 12, 2024) - my first license check was posted as 12.10.2025 - exactly one year from purchase.
When I decided to "not" renew my Annual Updates program - and moved right into "official" perpetual territory - I watched Oct 12, 2025 simply slid by on the calendar - and nothing untoward happened. No stoppages. Or weird messages. Or nothing. But a few weeks later (when I eventually spoke with support) - my new "check date" (for v7) was listed as Oct 12, 2026 and I carried on.
Just checked v7.2.3 two seconds ago and it is still listed as Oct 12, 2026. I will bet money that I v7.2.3 is still rolling as of Oct 13, 2026 - nothing will happen. Then when I purchased Studio Pro 8 on Jan 12, 2026 - you can see my screencap above - my "check date" (for that version) is exactly a year from purchase.
Now - to the scenarios you list - some plausible and others a tad far-fetched - until someone swings by here with actual evidence of a hard stop DUE to a failed license check or one of us experiences it ourselves - this is simply speculation.
Not saying that a problem is not possible (anything is "possible") - but without any actual intel - lets call it "unproven"
Me personally - I do not see a one a year "check" on any license (for verification purposes) being onerous or a negative in any way.
Fender owns this software, it's license mechanisms and everything else. If they want to check my license at a regular interval - that is just fine by me - and quite frankly - out of my hands.
Our purchase of a license give us a right to "use" the product and that is all. If one see this license check as an intrusion or problem - maybe it's time for a different DAW. But I guarantee - in one way or another - they all do these checks.
Meantime - until someone can confirm any possibility of "chaos" due to a failed license check - let's just keep on keeping on.
VP